What Florida’s 2024 Presidential primary results tell us about the November election and beyond

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — While of little consequence in terms of the Republican or Democratic nomination, the results of Florida’s Presidential Primary may provide some insights into how the General Election and beyond may play out in the Sunshine State.

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One of the biggest takeaways was Governor Ron DeSantis’ distant third-place finish in his home state.

Governor Ron DeSantis pulled just 3.7% of the vote in Florida’s Presidential Primary.

“He’s looking at a ballot with his name on it and he performed in the single digits in his home state, right? That probably doesn’t feel good,” said Nevena Trajkov, Department Chair of Political Science at Jacksonville University. “But when you stop and you break apart the analytics of it, it makes sense.”

Trajkov argued there were a lot of factors at play in Tuesday night’s election.

DeSantis hasn’t officially been in the race for nearly two months.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on the other hand, who pulled 13% of the vote, just dropped out two weeks ago and mail ballots had already been rolling in for nearly a month at that point.

But more than that, Trajkov argued Haley appealed to moderate conservatives looking for an alternative to Trump politics, while DeSantis had positioned himself as a younger version of Trump.

“The logic for the voters was well, why would I vote for DeSantis now when I still have Trump?” said Trajkov.

Trump also saw some losses on Tuesday night, coming in at 81% support.

That’s compared to 2020, when he pulled nearly 94%.

FULL RESULTS: 2024 Florida Presidential Preference Primary; 2 Northeast Florida local races

DeSantis chalked the reduction up to Haley still being on the ticket during the start of mail voting and claimed Florida would be a lock for Trump in the General Election.

“I don’t think Florida is gonna be a place where you’re going to see a lot of activity,” said DeSantis during a press conference Wednesday morning.

DeSantis pointed to Republicans’ nearly 800,000 voter registration lead over Democrats to back up that claim.

But Trajkov noted with the potential for abortion and recreational marijuana to be on the ballot, coupled with some Haley voters possibly breaking from Trump, the top of the ticket could end up tighter than expected in the Sunshine State come November.

“The younger more socially-conscious generation is going to come out and then Republicans are going to have a bit of a run for their money,” said Trajkov.

As far as DeSantis’ future Presidential prospects go, Trajkov suggested more than last night’s results, the results in November will be more telling on that front.

If Trump loses, and Republicans begin moving away from the Trump model, Trajkov argued DeSantis may have to find a way to rebrand if he hopes to stay competitive in 2028.

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